Notes Links Due
Welcome to the Course
Sign up for ed
Introduce Yourself to the Class Aug 4, 9 pm
Introduce Yourself to your Professor The responses to this "quiz" will not be available to your classmates. It is untimed. Aug 4, 9 pm
Getting to Know the Course Website     Take time go over the contents of this website, especially read the policies section. Do not forget to bookmark stats115.com.
Syllabus Quiz Before taking it you need to read all the information on this course website. Aug 4, 9 pm
Download and install R     Yes, you do need to download and install unless you have the latest version.
Download and install RStudio     Yes, you do need to download and install unless you have the latest version. Download the free Desktop version.
Install bayesrules package from CRAN. Make sure to run the code in the Console and not in a R script.
Install rstan Installation of rstan is quite an experience in comparison to other R packages. Read the guide provided at the link and follow the steps. You can stop for now if you make it to Checking the C++ Toolchain
Download VPN     Use the instructions to download VPN so that you can access resources that are only available on the campus network.
Toolbox Quiz Aug 4, 9 pm


Notes Links Due
Introduction to Bayesian Statistics    
Reading from Bayes Rules! book Chapter 1
Problem Set 1a - Introduction to Bayesian Statistics Aug 4, 9 pm
Probability Review    
Bayes' Rule for Events    
Review of ggplot If you need a refresher on ggplot you can watch the ggplot video from my ICS80 class.  
Review of the pipe operator If you need a refresher on the pipe operator you can watch the video from my ICS80 class.  
Simulating the Posterior for Events  
Bayes' Rule for Random Variables    
Reading from Bayes Rules! book Chapter 2
Problem Set 1b - Bayes' Rule Aug 4, 9 pm
The Beta Prior    
The Beta-Binomial Model    
Reading from Bayes Rules! book Chapter 3
Problem Set 1c - The Beta Binomial Model Aug 4, 9 pm



Notes Links Due
Beta-Binomial Review and Posterior Simulation    
Balance in Bayesian Analyses    
Sequentialiy in Bayesian Analyses    
Reading from Bayes Rules! book Chapter 4
Problem Set 2a - Balance and Sequentiality Aug 11, 9:00 pm
The Gamma-Poisson Model    
The Normal-Normal Model    
Reading from Bayes Rules! book Chapter 5
Problem Set 2b - Conjugate Families Aug 11, 9:00 pm


Notes Links Due
Grid Approximation    
Markov Chains with RStan    
Reading from Bayes Rules! book Chapter 6
Problem Set 3a -Approximating the Posterior Aug 19, 9 pm
Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm
Reading from Bayes Rules! book Chapter 7
Problem Set 3b -MCMC Under the Hood Aug 19, 9 pm
Mock Midterm Will not be graded
Midterm You need to be logged onto zoom simultaneously. Aug 18, 06:30 - 08:30 pm


Notes Links Due
Posterior Inference    
Posterior Prediction    
Reading from Bayes Rules! book Chapter 8
Problem Set 4a Posterior Inference and Prediction Aug 25, 9 pm
Simple Normal Regression    
Posterior Prediction    
Reading from Bayes Rules! book Chapters 9
Problem Set 4b Simple Normal Regression Aug 25, 9 pm
Evaluating Regression Models    
Reading from Bayes Rules! book Chapters 10
Problem Set 4c Model Evaluation Aug 25, 9 pm

Notes Links Due
Extending Normal Regression    
Reading from Bayes Rules! book Chapter 11
Problem Set 5a (ungraded) Extending Normal Regression
Logistic Regression    
Reading from Bayes Rules! book Chapter 13
Problem Set 5b (ungraded) Logistic Regression
Mock Final Exam
Final Exam - Written Part Sept 1, 6:30 - 8:30 pm
Final Oral Exam Schedule your exam Sept 2, 4:30 - 8:00 pm